THE COUNTDOWN – AT 7:28 A.M. ET:  The most important midterms in memory will be held one month from tomorrow.  Congress has just adjourned and the criminal class will be back in their districts imparting their wisdom.  Now the fun really begins.

This is where the country stands right now, according to RealClearPolitics:

President Obama's approval rating, averaging the different surveys, stands at 45% approve, 50.6% disapprove.  That is critical because midterms are often a referendum on the president in power, and Mr. Obama is not doing well.

But the generic congressional vote ("Which party would you vote for..?) has tightened.  Republicans stand at 46.5, Dems at 42.5, a spread of four points.  Now, it's been unusual for the GOP to lead at all in recent years, and a four-point lead is solid, but it isn't spectacular.  Generic polls have often predicted the eventual outcome of midterms.  A four-point lead points to GOP gains, but not necessarily spectacular gains.  But the huge enthusiasm on the right can alter that on election day.

Congressional job approval stands at 20.5% approve, 71.3% disapprove, a gap of 50.8 points.  Since Dems are in control of Congress, this number is no great endorsement of their work. 

A month is five lifetimes in politics, so we caution about making blanket predictions.  Beware the October surprise, especially in foreign policy, by this intensely political White House.  Beware the effects of a potential terror attack.  And beware the obscene linkage between the Democratic Party and the mainstream media, a linkage that must be worth a certain number of points in many races.  And beware the fact that the Republicans, in this Republican year, are hurt in some key races by some marginal candidates.

Thus far we've been lucky in that the president's campaigning hasn't apparently roused the Democratic base.  That can change.  Our fight must intensify. 

It's at this point that most of the public really starts to engage the election, and that engagement will grow once we get inside the two-week mark.   Nothing is in the bag, but I'd rather be a Republican right now than a Democrat.

October 1, 2010